Senior cargo executives at IATA member airlines are predicting that
global air freight tonnage will increase next year at its fastest rate
since 2010. Yet rates are likely to shrink by a further 5.8 per cent in
real terms, intensifying pressure on margins.
Brian Pearce, IATA chief economist, told a media briefing in Geneva
that volume measured by freight tonne-kilometres has continued its
steady recovery this year. The October figure of almost 14.5bn FTKs
surpassed the industry’s all-time peak achieved four years ago.
“We’re seeing growth after a challenging time but we’re facing
significant challenges,” Pearce said. IATA heads of cargo foresee a 4.3
per cent increase in volumes to 53.5m tonnes, slightly ahead of this
year’s growth rate, but expect further yield erosion.
Air freight yields are now 20 per cent below their 2010 levels,
reflecting continued weakness in load factors, and are declining again
after some evidence of rate stabilisation mid-year. Pearce said growth
in word trade was “half hearted” and business confidence had flat-lined.
Meanwhile, changes in manufacturing patterns could impact on
international freight flows. “We are seeing some on-shoring of
production for good economic reasons. China has seen a doubling of
labour costs in the last 10 years while US energy prices have halved,
leading to a renaissance of manufacturing in the US,” he commented.
Pearce also warned of the risks of protectionism, occurring via
subtle procurement changes as well as traditional tariff mechanisms.
Governments were concerned about protecting jobs at home, but their
action risked “shrinking international trade and economic growth for
everyone,” he said.
Air’s share of the overall freight market, which fell by 1.5 per cent
annually over the first decade of this century, had stabilised since
2012 and air was “becoming more attractive again compared with other
modes,” Pearce insisted.
However, the 40 per cent fall in oil prices since mid-2014, while in
principle helping airlines control their costs, would not produce an
immediate benefit as they would have hedged at least half their fuel
requirements at rates north of $90 per barrel.
“The success of their passenger colleagues also challenges cargo
departments,” Pearce said. Load factor had stopped falling and freighter
utilisation was increasing, underlining the industry’s ability to
matching supply to demand, but he stressed that “lots of new capacity is
coming online”.
IATA estimates that aircraft deliveries will increase by six per cent in 2015, putting pressure back on utilisation.
Source :http://www.aircargonews.net/news/single-view/news/tonnage-up-but-rates-to-shrink-in-2015-says-iata.html
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